The Certainty of Uncertainty
The Two-Step Dance That Replaces Perfect Planning
I met a carpenter who built perfect homes.
Every nail, every beam, every window placed exactly according to plans drawn years in advance. His blueprints were works of art – detailed, comprehensive, certain.
Then one day, lightning struck his current project. Not metaphorically. Actual lightning.
Half the structure burned. The perfect plans became worthless overnight.
I asked him what he learned.
"Plans are just stories we tell ourselves about the future," he said. "The only thing I'm certain of now is uncertainty."
The Museum of Perfect Plans
We all have one.
A mental museum filled with exhibits of "The Way Things Should Go." The five-year career trajectory. The retirement at 65. The business growth chart that only moves up and to the right.
We were taught the Old Model:
Plan everything (in great detail)
Execute the plan (without deviation)
Collect your guaranteed outcome (as promised)
But here's what nobody mentioned: the world doesn't care about your museum.
Markets shift overnight. Technologies make entire industries obsolete. Pandemics rewrite the rules of work and life. Lightning strikes.
The New Dance
The winners today aren't following the old choreography.
They're dancing a different dance – a perpetual two-step:
Execute: Move, build, create, ship
Adapt: Listen, learn, adjust, pivot
The baker who thrived during lockdown wasn't the one with the perfect 10-year expansion plan. It was the one who quickly figured out how to sell sourdough starter online.
The teacher who reached students wasn't the one clinging to lesson plans from 2019. It was the one who learned TikTok in a weekend to meet students where they were.
Amazon's Jeff Bezos got this dance years ago when he said:
"I very frequently get the question: 'What’s going to change in the next 10 years?' And that is a very interesting question; it’s a very common one. I almost never get the question: 'What’s not going to change in the next 10 years?' And I submit to you that that second question is actually the more important of the two."
Think about that.
While everyone obsesses over predicting change (and fails), the truly successful focus on what remains constant – human needs, desires, and behaviors that will stay the same regardless of technology or circumstance.
Amazon knew people would always want lower prices and faster delivery. That certainty provided the compass, even when the path kept changing.
The Unwritten Book
My friend Zee spent seven years working on the perfect business plan. Research, projections, contingencies – a masterpiece of planning.
Meanwhile, her competitor Sarah started with a simple idea and a quick prototype. She learned from customers, adjusted her approach, and built a thriving business.
Zee is still editing her plan.
Sarah is on her third successful product line.
The difference wasn't intelligence or resources. It was approach.
Zee was writing a perfect book that would never be published.
Sarah was writing a sentence, publishing it, then writing the next one based on reader feedback.
Your Turn
Look at your perfect plans today.
Are they museums or maps?
Are they sacred texts or working drafts?
Are they finished symphonies or the first notes of an improvisation?
The most dangerous certainty is believing we can predict what's coming.
The most valuable skill is learning to thrive in the face of what we can't predict.
What's your next move in this new dance?
How quickly can you learn to love the lightning when it strikes?
What will you build today, knowing it might need to be something else tomorrow?
~ aq